Skyrizi has shown superiority to Humira in fields such as plaque psoriasis by a statistically significant amount, with a comparable safety profile, whilst Rinvoq has shown superiority in e.g. Teliso V is an antibody drug conjugate and a c-Met inhibitor. What is ABBV's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2023-2025? These are Immunology, Oncology, Neurology, Virology and Eye Care. Currently, the company has a "stable" rating, but that must be maintained or investors will perceive the company as unsafe to invest in and that will drag the share price down rapidly. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Armed with management's detailed guidance and commentary on sales performance of key assets and new product launches, however, I have completed sales projections for AbbVie to 2030, which I will share in this post, highlighting areas of strength and potential weaknesses. AbbVie saw a increase in short interest in February. Among the many avenues of research and innovation are the advancement of precision medicine or pMedicine. Ever since its split from Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 2012 AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) has delivered strong returns for investors - its stock price having risen overall from $30, to $149 per share at the time of writing - trading down slightly from its all-time high of >$160 achieved in early December last year. Only you can design whether Abbvie stock is the right investment for you. I am using a weighted average cost of capital of ~10%, which is broadly consistent with the figure I use when modelling for the other 7 members of what I term the "Big 8" US Pharmas - Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Merck & Co (MRK), Bristol Myers Squibb, Amgen, and Gilead Sciences (GILD) - which helps prove the accuracy of the calculation. AbbVie is led by CEO and Chairman Rick Gonzalez - likely the only Pharma CEO who lacks a college degree - who has successfully defended Humira from generic drug competition by adopting a controversial strategy of continually applying for new patents related to minor changes in manufacturing methods or administration, often referred to as a "patent thicket". The important point here is that physicians will not necessarily be under any pressure to switch patients from Humira to a biosimilar, given, as Gonzalez puts it: there won't be any difference between the biosimilar and Humira from a co-pay standpoint or any kind of a step editing. The companys operations span 20 countries, treating more than 60 million people and 40 conditions annually. Based on aggregate information from My MarketBeat watchlists, some companies that other AbbVie investors own include Intact Financial (IFC), Constellation Software (CSU), AutoCanada (ACQ), Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.B), Vermilion Energy (VET), AT&T (T), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Rogers Communications (RCI) and Open Text (OTEX). In February, a Phase 3 induction study saw positive top-line results. This included an unfavourable impact of $0.08 a share related to acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) and milestones expenses incurred during the March quarter. According to 34 stock analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for AbbVie stock is $166.14, which predicts an increase of 7.62%. Botox accounts for the bulk of the companys Aesthetics portfolio revenue and about 4% of the net as of 2022. (my tables and forecasting). Negative dynamics for AbbVie shares will prevail with possible volatility of 1.976%. Duodopa is approved for Parkinson's Disease but Gonzalez believes that the subcutaneous non-surgical delivery system of candidate ABBV951 can "significantly expand the patient population currently addressed by Duopa", and sees the drug as yet another future blockbuster. For ABBVIE INC stock forecast for 2023, 10 predictions are offered for each month of 2023 with average ABBVIE INC stock forecast of $156.58, a high forecast of $160.07, and a low forecast of $152.24. Based on an average daily volume of 5,600,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is currently 2.1 days. Eli Lilly has long been a reliable stock, but with the company's impressive product pipeline, the stock could hold significant potential in the near term. Since its 2013 separation from Abbott Laboratories (ABT 1.78%), AbbVie's stock has grown more than 160%. AbbVie, like its parent Abbot Laboratories, is a well-established dividend growth stock. Shares of ABBV stock can be purchased through any online brokerage account. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Among its many positions is sustainable operations so it can deliver life-changing therapies to those who need them most. Enjoy your holiday weekend and catch up on our most read stories this week. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I do much more than just articles at Haggerston BioHealth: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. With the Hughes Optioneering Strategy, youll soon learn that the safest option for new accounts is options themselves! I hope to see you there. . For full year 2022, Abbvie predicted the adjusted diluted EPS guidance range at $14.00 to $14.20 and $13.92 to $14.12. One share of ABBV stock can currently be purchased for approximately $156.06. In this post, I will discuss Q2'22 results, as well as the long-term outlook for AbbVie based on the latest information, goals, risks, and financial modeling analysis, to try to establish a target price for AbbVie stock. With AbbVie seemingly very confident of approvals for all 3 of these drugs, and Gonzalez suggesting they could form the basis of a "$6 billion kind of franchise" I have modelled for such an outcome by 2030. On 14 January 2022, the FDA approved Abbvies arthritis treatment drug, Rinvoq (upadacitinib), for the treatment of adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Your current $100 investment may be up to $188.28 in 2028. According to 23 major analysts, AbbVie's Fair Value will fall by 5.43% in the next year, reaching $122.98. 2023 Market data provided is at least 10-minutes delayed and hosted by Barchart Solutions. Is this happening to you frequently? The company didn't offer a . Moreover, with surging demand, rising investments in research and development, and increasing e-pharmacy channels, the industry is well-positioned for significant growth New research suggests Depakote ingredient could have a new clinical function. This suggests a possible upside of 3.8% from the stock's current price. Myelofibrosis has proved to be a tricky indication for drug developers and there are no wholly satisfactory solutions on the market at present, therefore if approved I would expect Navitoclax - a drug that AbbVie has been working on for some time - to generate a couple of billion dollars in peak sales. In my modeling table above, I estimate Humira sales will decline by 25% between 2022 and 2023, to ~$16bn, although some of that lost revenue will be gobbled up by Skyrizi/Rinvoq. Stock Price Forecast The 21 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Abbvie Inc have a median target of 165.00, with a high estimate of 200.00 and a low estimate of 135.00. The AbbVie of today has 5 thriving divisions - Immunology, Oncology, Neuroscience, Aesthetics, and Eye Care - with the latter 3 divisions acquired from Allergan as part of AbbVie's $63bn takeover of that company. If you rely on the information on this page then you do so entirely on your own risk. See AbbVie Inc. stock price prediction for 1 year made by analysts and compare it to price changes over time to develop a better trading strategy. In the next year, analysts predict that Revenue will reach C$253.83M - an increase of 3.50%. When I began this post it was in my mind to give AbbVie stock a "Hold" rating owing to an underwhelming - on some levels - set of Q2'22 earnings, some concerns around high revenue generating products such as Imbruvica, Juvederm, and Restasis, the disappearance of the Women's Health division, the imminent LOE for Humira and the high levels of debt. After 2022 Humira's row is shaded yellow to signify patent expiry. Our first quarter results highlight the diversity of our portfolio and include compelling performance from key growth drivers Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Aesthetics and Neuroscience. The company projects the U.S. toxin market (where Botox is the top product) will decline by mid-single digits. Thus, it is likely that ABBV will continue to find support on the dips in this type of market environment.. AbbVie will have to drop its price point to compete with the generics however, plus there is the 10% of the market it is not covered for, so an overall 20% decline in revenues in 2023 seems accurate. Find me at my marketplace channel, Haggerston BioHealth - model portfolio + 4 exclusive stock tips every week. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Within eye care, Restasis was a major disappointment, and the entire division seems to be struggling, with total revenues falling from ~$920m in Q2'21, to ~$720m in Q2'22. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Their combined revenues are expected to reach $7.5bn in 2022, and Gonzalez told the audience at JPM that: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on pace to deliver more than $17.5 billion in combined sales, risk adjusted sales in 2025, well above our previous expectations. Kateryna Onyshchuk/iStock via Getty Images. AbbVie Aesthetics / Neurology revenues forecasts to 2030 (my table and assumptions). We continue to anticipate a clearer path to strong sales growth in 2025 with high-single-digit compounded annual growth rate to the end of this decade. Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. This could present more profit potential for drugmakers as well as investors. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. Nevertheless, AbbVie is clearly under huge pressure to protect its dominance in the immunology markets, and the signs are it has been able to do just that thanks to the launches of 2 new drugs - Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Skyrizi and Rinvoq will together achieve a higher peak sales figure than even Humira could manage, even while Humira is still making a substantial top line contribution, still accounting for as much of 7% of AbbVie's total sales in 2030. The median estimate represents a +5.72% increase from the last price of 156.07. Disclaimer. According to AbbVie CEO Rick Gonzalez, speaking on the Q2'22 earnings call, "Skyrizi's total prescription share of the U.S. biological market (in psoriasis) has increased to approximately 26%", and". AbbVie product revenue forecasts to 2030. Abbvies haematologic oncology portfolio, neuroscience portfolio and aesthetics portfolio reported net revenues of $1.65bn, $1.49bn and $1.37bn, respectively. Any company is likely to struggle if sales of its best-selling asset begin to decline by ~20% per annum, which is traditionally the rate at which patent expired drugs' sales slip, but when the drug in question accounts for >35% of a company's sales, as Humira does, the situation becomes even more serious. Please log in to your account or sign up in order to add this asset to your watchlist. The pharma industry witnessed solid growth amid the pandemic. According to the Abbvie stock technical analysis, as of 30 June, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing to neutral at 62.18. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. The company originated as the bio-pharma segment of Abbott Laboratories and was spun off in late 2012. Information is provided 'as-is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and is delayed. Please. I haven't included Epcoritamab sales in my forecasts this time, but I hope to adjust the table before Q3'22 results are announced. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Whether these factors make ABBV a good investment for you or not will depend on your portfolio composition, investment goals and risk profile, among other factors. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. At their peak, according to a slide from AbbVie's presentation at the JPMorgan (JPM), these 2 drugs are expected to generate more revenues than Humira at its peak. Migraine therapy Ubrelvy is a future blockbuster, Gonzalez believes, as is Qulipta, in the same indication. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Bringing RGX314 would be a coup for AbbVie although I am forecasting for only $2bn in peak revenues in 2030 as a hedge against the risk that this candidate does not make it to market on safety grounds. Noting the stellar earnings reported by the firm in the first quarter, Richard A. Gonzalez, chairman and CEO of AbbVie, said: An overview of the companys net revenue in Q1 shows a major portion of revenue came from its immunology portfolio, which brought in $6.14bn. I have plugged my revenue expectations into this table knowing that they closely match AbbVie management's own expectations based on what they have said in public. Earnings for AbbVie are expected to decrease by -0.55% in the coming year, from $11.00 to $10.94 per share. Richard A. Gonzalez has an approval rating of 88% among the company's employees. (my tables). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. With AbbVie's revenues accelerating past $80bn in 2030 (by my calculation), and cash flow generated in that year being >$25bn, after applying discount factors for each year I reach a price target of $176 - the average of DCF - $162 per share - and EBITDA - $189 per share - calculations. In the U.S. dermatology segment, where approximately 30% of patients exhibit both skin and joint involvement, Skyrizi is already achieving an in-play patient share of nearly 20%. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. As per management's guidance, I am modelling for $5.7bn of revenues in 2023, with growth beginning to accelerate substantially from 2025 / 26 onwards. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the ABBV stock price performance. AbbVie updated its FY 2024 earnings guidance on Friday, February, 10th. Skyrizi is a collaboration between Boehringer Ingelheim and AbbVie, with AbbVie leading development and commercialisation globally. AbbVie does not have the funds to pursue any large M&A deals, but it does not need to either, given the strength of its pipeline and products. This figure could eventually end up substantially larger - according to Gonzalez: We've begun to see some very exciting data from several solid tumor programs, including our anti-GARP antibody ABBV-151, and our PTK7 ADC, ABBV-647. All rights reserved. PEG Ratios above 1 indicate that a company could be overvalued. AbbVie made the bold decision to take on a heavy debt load and bid for Allergan, with the deal being completed in 2020. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 | StockForecast.com GB Trial results demonstrated an overall response rate of 63% and a median duration of response of 12 months, where 39% of patients had already tried a CAR-T cell therapy. This means that . AbbVie CEO Gonzalez told the audience at the JPM Healthcare conference that: We now have a little over 90% access for next year for Humira at parity. In the last two years, Aurora Cannabis's Revenue has fallen from C$245.54M to C$245.25M - a 0.12% decrease. As I have mentioned in previous notes, however, the gains owe more to price hikes than sales volumes, and come 2023 and the LOE, even AbbVie admits the blow to revenues will be substantial. I'll also share some a forward income statement and discounted cash flow analysis that suggests the present value of AbbVie shares ought to trade as high as $176, implying that shares are presently discounted by as much as 18% to their true worth. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $10.70- for the period. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. AbbVie has been increasing its dividend for 51 years. The 21 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for ABBV have a max estimate of and a min estimate of . Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. Under the terms of the resolution, AbbVie will grant Alvotech a non-exclusive licence to its Humira-related patents in the US, which will begin on 1 July 2023. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $3.31 EPS. 1 dividend stock for a LIFETIME of income. Date. The fact that my own forecasts are less ambitious than management's reflects the fact I have not introduced new products into my forecasts, and it will be interesting to see how management performs on that front as AbbVie has not really had to have a string pipeline while Humira has delivered such dominance in the auto-immune markets. Let's begin our analysis with the immunology division. target price for AbbVie stock based on DCF / EBITDA multiple analysis (my table and assumptions). I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Net earnings also saw a steep rise to $4.49bn from $3.55bn, while net revenue jumped to $13.54bn from 13.01bn. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and can afford the risks. As well as the stock price gains AbbVie has always paid a handsome dividend - which has increased by 270% since the Pharma's inception, currently paying $1.48 per quarter, for a current yield of 4% - the highest in the large Pharmaceutical sector. Management has previously stated that it expects total revenues to decline in 2023 following the Humira LOE, followed by a return to growth in 2024, and a "high single digit CAGR" maintained through the remainder of the decade. As of 30 June, analysts price predictions compiled by MarketBeats and long-term forecasts by Wallet Investor projected that the ABBV stock price could rise. The majority of the biosimilar (more sophisticated versions of generic drugs) imitations of Humira that will contest for market share with the original will launch around the middle of 2023, including versions developed by Pfizer (PFE), Boehringer Ingelheim, Organon (OGN), Biocon, Coherus Biosciences (CHRS) and Sandoz, whilst Amgen's (AMGN) Amjevita is permitted to launch in January.
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